Virtual Assistants to Exceed 2.5 Billion Shipments in 2023

December 23 2019, 00:20
The market for virtual assistants (VAs) continues to illustrate strong positive momentum, according to a new report from Futuresource Consulting. Shipments of products supporting virtual assistants rose 25% year-on-year to 1.1 billion units in 2019, with the market on course to exceed 2.5 billion shipments by 2023. Apple leads the market in terms of products sold with support for its Siri voice assistant.

“Growth presently continues unabated, as virtual assistants become a common feature across the Consumer Electronics and Automotive sectors,” says Simon Forrest, Principal Technology Analyst at Futuresource Consulting. “Indeed, 2020 will be the year when shipments of voice-enabled products overtake those with no voice capability.”

Across the leading assistant platforms, Apple’s Siri presently holds 35% share globally, reflecting the continued success of iPhone and the newly released AirPods Pro. Google Assistant and Amazon Alexa hold 9% and 4% market share respectively, due in part to shipments across their 1st party products. Microsoft retired Cortana from Xbox, however its domination in Windows 10 PCs ensures that Cortana holds 22% market share worldwide. 

Microsoft is switching its strategy to make Cortana more enterprise targeted, with tighter integration into Office 365 and its suite of productivity tools. In China, Baidu’s DuerOS posted strongest growth, rising 6% year-on-year to command 15% market share in 2019.

Several products now embed support for multiple assistants, usually selected via a configuration option permitting the consumer to choose which voice ecosystem they wish to use. Only a handful of products on the market offer simultaneous access to multiple assistants. “Virtual assistant vendors have, unsurprisingly, been reluctant to cooperate,” says Forrest. “But this is destined to change following the establishment of the Voice Interoperability Initiative, a program created to ensure voice-enabled products offer customers choice and flexibility through multiple, interoperable voice services.”

Regionally, Asia Pacific showed a strong performance over the year, commanding 43% share of the “built-in” assistant market, as Alibaba, Baidu and others including Xiaomi increase penetration of their Chinese language assistants. In EMEA and the Americas, Amazon, Apple, Google and Microsoft continue to dominate; Siri maintained its leading position, with Google Assistant also posting strong growth in EMEA, as support is extended across the region.

Improvements in machine learning are allowing speech models to be significantly reduced in size. “Alongside the introduction of neural network accelerators in silicon chips powering consumer electronics products, this allows virtual assistants to begin to operate independently on the device itself, without always accessing the cloud,” explains Forrest. “This leads to enhanced privacy and also enables advanced conversational ability, due to reduced latency overall.” In November, Amazon lowered product hardware requirements, enabling microcontroller-class devices to participate in their voice ecosystem, by creating a new virtual Alexa built-in solution in the cloud.

Technology innovation continues in speech synthesis. “The move towards neural Text-To-Speech technology creates more natural-sounding voices that imitate patterns of stress, rhythm and intonation,” explains Forrest. “Amazon went a stage further and introduced emotions into Alexa, conveying empathy. These advancements in voice technology may appear superficial at first, however a less robotic voice leads to consumers expecting more capability from their virtual assistant, leading to increased engagement.”
With the Echo Loop smart ring, Amazon wants users (and its virtual assistant Alexa...) to be less dependent of the smartphone.
"Virtual assistants are beginning to transform into platforms possessing advanced conversational ability with contextual intelligence. Presently mute until summoned, the next generation of virtual assistants must intelligently interject with precisely timed and relevant information in order to advance their utility beyond simple command and control mechanisms. If they can achieve this, then consumers are likely to further explore what these virtual assistants are capable of, advancing the use-cases and cementing voice as a permanent feature in the consumer electronics landscape," Forrest adds.
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